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Prediction for CME (2022-01-17T14:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-01-17T14:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/18871/-1
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-01-21T11:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/18879/1
Model Inputs:
2022-01-17T14:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=56.0, Lat.=28.0, Speed=451.0, HalfAngle=28.0, Time21.5=2022-01-17T23:11Z

Model Output:
The Earth arrival for 2022-01-17T14:48:00-CME-001 CME (minor impact) (derived from simulation animation) is about 2022-01-21T11:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=3


This CME was simulated with the previous CME 2022-01-16T20:48:00-CME-001 
with CME Analysis: Lon.=30.0, Lat.=12.0, Speed=610.0, HalfAngle=22.0, Time21.5=2022-01-17T02:12Z for which the predicted Earth Impact was:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2022-01-20T00:00Z (+- 7 hours)

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220117_021400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220117_021400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220117_021400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220117_021400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220117_021400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220117_021400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220117_021400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220117_021400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220117_021400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220117_021400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220117_021400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220117_021400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220117_021400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220117_021400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220117_021400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220117_021400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 64.98 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) on 2022-01-18T18:01Z

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